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NASCAR heads to Daytona International Speedway the Coke Zero Sugar 400, for its Independence Day weekend convention. Sunday afternoon’s race features the next race run under the new superspeedway rules bundle.
The first, at Talladega, made fantastic racing very similar to classic restrictor plate races of yesteryear.
I expect the exact same for Daytona, in which the draft must play a large role, keeping cars packed tightly together. These racing conditions consistently cause fear of the”Big One” where several cars — sometimes numbering in the double digits — have been carried out in one major accident.
The prospect of calamity and the draft create longshot value relevant at Daytona.
Blow Off practice occasions when handicapping a superspeedway race — the draft renders practice insignificant. Instead, start looking for motorists that have good superspeedway history and may be undervalued by the market.
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Just 1 driver can acquire, but multiple longshots have chances at top-three, top-five and top-10 finishes.
Let’s get into the best futures bets for tonight’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2000) TO WIN
William Hill is offering a generous price on Stenhouse, a two-time superspeedway winner. Stenhouse is a remarkably aggressive driver who enjoys to direct these kinds of races. Stenhouse led twice in Daytona and 3 times at Talladega this season, confirming his drive to be out front.
In 2019, outside of superspeedways, Stenhouse has been powerful at the races where the draft matters most — 1.5-mile tracks at night or using low tire wear. Now we are in a race where the draft plays the ultimate role.
It is sensible to wager Stenhouse down to +1500 to triumph.
ARIC ALMIROLA (+2200) TO WIN
Both of Almirola’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series wins came at superspeedways. He won the 2014 edition of this race, and was top the past year’s Daytona 500 coming to the checkered flag contact Austin Dillon.
Almirola hasn’t had quite the time he had last year, completing in a worse place in nine of his 17 races, while currently residing 11th in the point standings.
However, Almirola directed 27 laps at Talladega but completed only ninth as the Chevrolet team plan placed its automobiles in a much better position to dominate the end of the race.
I would wager him down to +1600.
ERIK JONES (+3000) TO WIN
Jones currently sits out the playoff picture at 17th in the point standings. I think his subpar performance is driving his long chances at MGM possessions.
But, Jones is an excellent superspeedway racer using a win-or-go-home record in these races. He has either crashed out or completed within the top nine in each superspeedway race of his Cup career except one.
Not merely are his playoff hopes on the line, but his future at Joe Gibbs Racing is in doubt. This race might just be the antidote Jones requires in a year of doubt and struggle.
There is value down here to +2500.

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