Seven teams got beat by double digits in Week 1 and we are watching overcorrection of odds and inflated spreads for Week two because of the overreaction that is immediate. But over the last five seasons, the groups that got wrecked in their opening match by 10 points or more have now covered of their period in Week 2.
There were 34 cases of teams losing from double-digit things in Week 1 and their album is 21-12-1 ATS for Week 2. That record seemed so doubtful that I needed to double-check the result myself out of our stats man (shout-out to May!) .
See the table under angles you could take advantage of for Week two and that exemplifies this tendency:
As you can see, that the ATS percentage does not change much depending on the sample size of the last few seasons this past year and the past five seasons. This isn’t me saying to take out another mortgage and set it on the Dolphins +19??spread vs the Patriots however there’s some virtue to projecting a bounce-back from groups in Week two by these keeping games winning (52.9 percent over five decades ).
The seven groups which lost in Week 1 by 10 points or more would be the Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We wouldn’t be much of an authority on odds and tendencies if we find out the way that teams do after crushing an opponent and didn’t at least examine the side. According to the past five seasons, the teams which won by 10 points or more at Week 1 have only covered 45.5 percent of their matches in Week 2.
See the table below for past five seasons, the last 3 seasons and 2018:
There is a regression from these winners that is likely because guards have game footage which could pinpoint flaws and they will not be caught off guard as evidenced in the table over.
It is also because of inflated spreads which are not an actual representation of those groups are ATS. For reference, the seven teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 would be the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
To find the most recent betting odds take a look at our NFL Odds Page.